2025 is not a normal year for global trade. New tariffs, a denser network of sanctions, and a noticeable increase in geopolitical uncertainty are slowing down the flow of goods, investment, and income. This is affecting industrialized nations, but it is also hitting emerging markets even harder.

Forecasts were initially revised downward in the spring, and although later updates showed short-term counter-movements due to frontloading, the structural headwinds remain. The CPB World Trade Monitor signaled declining monthly figures in the second quarter; the wealth effects are measurably below previous baselines. In short, we are dealing less with a demand shock than with a politically induced regulatory and supply shock.

For businesses this is creating a real economic problem which not only affects day to day operations but longer-term investments and growths plans, especially in overseas markets.

Many businesses lack the access to local knowledge and this uncertainty logically translates into a negative investor perception of investment opportunities. If a lack of information coming out of the country on potential investment opportunities or ambitions is added, then many opportunities go unrealised.

The kay barriers to investing in developing markets are:

• Political and Regulatory uncertainty

• Macroeconomic and Financial Constraints

• Poor Infrastructure

• Market and Business Environment Challenges

• Poor Governance and Institutional Gaps

• Limited Social and Human Capital

• Perceptions and Information Gaps

For a business, covering such a broad range of challenges requires considerable resources, often only accessible to the very largest companies. This means that whilst many businesses may be attracted to investing overseas, they hold back concerned by the high level of perceived risk.

Taking a well-informed and structured approach will not only help mitigate the risks highlighted but can create a competitive advantage.  Rather than being led by events, a well-prepared business can help shape them. Part of that challenge is managing the various elements affecting a potential investment.

The missed opportunity: trade facilitation

Fortunately, there is one golden opportunity, often overlooked by businesses: trade facilitation. Working together, the public, and private sectors can deliver more targeted and economically relevant projects that make a real difference.

As part of the planning process, any company looking to invest in an emerging market should enquire about any trade related capacity building and see how it can be linked in any way. Trade Facilitation is designed not only to improve processes but to generate an environment that attracts investment and ultimately drives growth. In other words, a planned investment may be exactly what the Government is seeking to support.

Actively engaging, supporting not only a direct ambition but any ancillary elements such as regulation, infrastructure, development of a local workforce as well as support services.

Trade facilitation is not a soft, nice-to-have option, but rather the most robust, politically acceptable antidote to tariffs, sanctions, and fragmentation, however it can lead to real change.

The WTO Agreement on Trade Facilitation (TFA)

So, is there a guide to trade facilitation, what needs doing and the impact that it can have? The answer is yes, the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement or TFA.

Agreed in 2013, and entered into force in February 2017, the TFA commits member countries to a prescribed set of reforms that reduce red tape, streamline border processes and increase transparency. The WTO estimates that full implementation should reduce trade costs by 14% on average with higher savings expected in emerging markets.

In short: the TFA makes international trade more efficient and inclusive, especially for developing economies by attracting foreign direct investment and opening up access to international markets for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).

Overlapping interests

So, from a European perspective, what do both sides want? The EU is striving for more resilient supply chains, lower transaction costs, digitalization at borders, integrity in enforcement, and the participation of smaller companies, all of which are enshrined in the TFA.

Companies are looking for planning security, reliable rules, short turnaround times, lower compliance costs, and access to new markets. The overlap is obvious: those who jointly design, pilot, and scale TFA reforms will achieve rapid, measurable, and inclusive progress. This is precisely where an EU industry alliance comes in – co-financed and politically framed by European programs (such as the EU’s Global Gateway), with the practical knowledge and experience from the business community.

From lobbying to co-creation

To achieve this, we need to move away from traditional “lobbying” for trade reforms. Position papers rarely convince when they are based on anecdotes. We need co-creation: jointly defined problem statements, pilots with clear KPIs (baseline, target value, time horizon), transparency about impact, and standards that scale. This is not a substitute for politics, but a shortcut to better policies. What does that mean in practice?

• Data beats opinions. Live metrics such as median processing times, variances, inspection rates, error and corruption indicators belong in public dashboards – with third-party validation.

• Digital first. Pre-arrival processing, risk-based channels, e-documents, and low-invitation controls reduce friction and sources of error.

• Integrity by design. Digital traces, whistleblowing channels, dual control principles, and independent audit routines must be part of the solution—not an afterthought.

• MSME enablement. Training, onboarding standards, and lean certifications open markets for the many, not the few.

• Open standards instead of vendor lock-in – otherwise we will never scale cost-effectively.

The effectiveness of this approach has been proven: projects run by the Global Alliance for Trade Facilitation, (a public/private partnership) for example have been delivering significant time and cost savings for years, from the rollout of ePhyto to risk management engines at borders. In logistics, programs such as “GoTrade” (DHL) have helped reduce bureaucracy for SMEs.

Recommendations for action and risk avoidance

Where are the risks for companies?

While investments in developing countries and trade facilitation offers significant strategic and economic opportunities, companies must avoid common pitfalls that can undermine success, damage reputation, or lead to financial losses. Here are 10 guidelines for minimizing risks in this area:

1.      Don’t Enter Without Expert Support with access to Local Partners or Intelligence

Having support from recognised experts in the policy and regulatory landscape with access to regional and local actors will help you to gain a clearer picture of the situation on the ground and the necessary steps needed to reduce the risk of lost time, additional cost and at worst, failure.

2.      Don’t Treat It Like CSR or Philanthropy

Trade facilitation is a strategic enabler, not just a goodwill gesture. Avoid token projects that don't align with commercial goals. Integrate them into your core business strategy and focus on outcomes that really make a positive difference. Set real targets.

3.      Don’t Assume One-Size-Fits-All

Each country is unique in its regulatory, political, and economic context. Successful reforms in one location may fail in another if not adapted.

4.      Don’t Ignore Political Economy and Power Dynamics

Reforms can challenge entrenched interests. Understand who benefits from the status quo before proposing changes.

5.      Don’t Over-Promise or Under-Deliver

Avoid public commitments without full internal alignment and risk analysis. Furthermore, avoid “cutting ribbons” at the start, do that at the end. Credibility matters.

6.      Don’t Focus Only on Infrastructure

Soft infrastructure—like procedures, digital systems, and coordination—is as important as physical upgrades.

7.      Don’t Disregard Small Businesses and Local Impact

Design reforms that benefit local SMEs and the local economy to ensure inclusivity and sustainability. SME’s can contribute to supporting your business plans as well as the growth of the local economy.

8.      Don’t Operate in a Policy Vacuum

Trade facilitation should align with wider national development and industrial policy, not contradict it. The ultimate aim is to support trade based growth in the country.

9.      Don’t Expect Short-Term ROI

Reforms take time. Enter with a 3–5 year perspective to allow measurable results and policy maturation.

10.  Don’t Ignore Reputational and ESG Risks

Conduct thorough due diligence to avoid associations with corruption, labour abuse, or non-compliance. Again, seek support from experts with a proven track record in this area.

For implementation, we recommend a pragmatic partnership in a consortium with logistics, tech, and data partners—with a clear, EU-compatible mandate for design, piloting, and scaling.

Associations play a central role in this: The ICC sets standards, bundles international practice, and hosts relevant alliances; the BDI can coordinate use cases, organize data donations (anonymized), and feed pilot corridors with German industrial expertise. This is how “dialogue” becomes real implementation.

This is not theory. It is an invitation to switch from “position” to “pilot” now. The EU has opened the door. Industry is providing the tools. At BOC Consult GmbH, we can take on the orchestration—and within months demonstrate that trade facilitation will help you deliver your investment, delivering growth, integrity, and participation at the same time. Let's get started: two countries, clear KPIs, measurable impact.

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